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NFL Football Handicapper Bob Wingerter shares his philosophy.
In this era of domed stadiums, its always a nice day and research shows that the games played in domes have overall higher scores than games played outdoors. The truth is, outdoor games played in good weather do not have a lower average score than games played in domes. What happens is outdoor games played in bad weather, bring down the average score of all outdoor games. Like injuries, weather and field conditions are overstressed by many people. A bad field seldom helps anyone. As the footing becomes worse, the game develops into a pushing contest and the larger player can usually push best. The inside power game has an edge on a rainy day because it is difficult to sustain blocking on sweeps. Be careful of cold weather teams going into hot and humid conditions early in the season. Conversely, late in the season, warm weather teams can get psyched out when going into cold wet areas. In cold temperatures the kicking game, both punting and field goals, can be affected. The kicker loses yardage on the boot.
The handicapper must see through peaks and valleys each team will inevitably experience. Most sports writers fall into the trap of jumping to conclusions based on sketchy evidence from 1 or 2 games. They will express opinions based on the most circumstantial evidence. Its amusing to see a writer zig and zag from week to week, forgetting what he had written in a previous column. The uniformed fan unfortuantely is swayed by these alternating reports. The lesson this teaches us is that one game has little, if any, bearing on the next one.
NFL offensive linemen are finally becoming an important issue. They had been in the shadows of quarterbacks, running backs and receivers for years. Today's philosophy is defense wins championships. This is true, but you also need an excellent offensive line. Offensive centers, tackles and guards today, are considered just as important as linebackers, defensive ends and the defensive backfield. Even offensive linemen's salaries are steadily improving. Protecting the quarterback has the highest priority now days and that's the job of the guys in the trenches.
Basic NFL Football Handicapping Rules
- Be up-to-date on all changes on NFL teams and coaching staffs
- Be aware of all football player injuries and the significance it will have on each team
- Be able to change with new information and facts
- Know when a betting line is off
- Discipline yourself to use good money management and find good numbers to play into
- Accept that there will be winning and losing streaks and do not make radical changes to your handicapping methods because of temporary setbacks
- You must recognize your limitations and maintain an open mind to new ideas to be successful over time
- Know the philosophy of each team's coaching and how it will affect the match up
- Always know the morale and attitudes of all NFL teams and players
- Know how NFL teams have played each other recently and previously
- Know the quality of key players in the match up
- Know the bench quality of the NFL teams
- Have knowledge of the NFL football betting lines, their behavior and how to read them
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